Dutch mobile market drops 2.7%
The Dutch mobile industry generated EUR 1.45 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2012, showing a decrease of 2.7 percent compared to the same quarter last year and a decline of 4.5 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. According to Telecompaper’s quarterly mobile market monitor, the annual decline slowed to 2.7 percent, from 4.2 percent in the same period last year, due to a smaller impact from cuts to termination rates. Nevertheless, voice revenue was still lower, and the growth in non-voice revenues, from services such as SMS and data, was not able to compensate. Non-voice services now contribute over 38.5 percent of total service revenue.
Telecompaper has also updated its five-year outlook for the Dutch mobile industry. For 2012, the Dutch market is expected to show a decline of around 2 percent to EUR 5.9 billion in service revenue. For the period 2012-2016, the Dutch market is expected to show a CAGR of 0.3 percent, reaching around EUR 6.2 billion in service revenues in 2016. Regulation and the weak economic climate are expected to continue to impact operator revenues. “Due to the shift towards a more data-centric customer behavior, operators will be forced to make changes in their tariff pricing, in order to counteract the continuous drop in voice revenues,” said Alejandra van de Roer, Telecompaper senior research analyst and author of Telecompaper’s quarterly mobile market monitor for The Netherlands.
In the first quarter of 2012, Vodafone outperformed the market. It was the only operator to show a small annual increase in revenue and had the smallest quarterly decline in revenue. KPN lost revenue market share to Vodafone as well as T-Mobile (which showed stable revenues). Vodafone reinforced its second-place position and increased its revenue market share annually by 1.6 percent, while KPN dropped 2.3 percent and T-Mobile added 0.7 percent.
In terms of customer numbers, the Dutch market (including MVNOs) saw an increase of 3.3 percent annually to 20.9 million at the end of March 2012. As a consequence mobile market penetration increased from 121.3 percent in Q1 2011 to 124.8 percent in Q1 2012. KPN’s market lead weakened to 47 percent of all subscribers, while Vodafone saw its market share increase to 29 percent, and T-Mobile was stable at 25 percent.
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