The forecasted 2012 budget deficit passes the ‘signal margin’ by 0.4%. This was made public today by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its December forecast, published as CPB Policy Brief 2011/13.

This December forecast is based on a ‘muddling-through scenario’, which assumes that the Eurozone crisis will neither be solved, nor further escalated downwards. The forecast also assumes that the financial markets will see some tranquillity in the course of 2012, while economic growth will also slowly return. However, for this moment it is uncertainty that mostly determines the European economies, which leads to a decrease of the relevant world trade for the Netherlands in 2012 and a negative GDP growth for the Eurozone area as a whole.

The Dutch economy is in recession. The expected slight recovery of economic growth will not be seen until the second half of 2012. Dutch GDP in 2012 will be ½percent lower, compared to 2011. This economic decline is mostly due to lower foreign trade. In addition, Dutch consumers and investors keep spending levels down, while growth is also negatively impacted by restrictive budgetary policies.

The current forecast is less optimistic about the public budget than the previous forecast of September 2011. This is almost exclusively due to the worsened growth prospects. The forecasted budget deficit in 2012 passes the so-called ‘signal margin’. However, the budgetary rules set by the current government only call for additional measures if this will also be the case in the forecast for 2013. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis will publish its first 2013 forecast in February 2012.

The Netherlands is working hard to drive this message home, said Mr Rutte. Finance minister Jan Kees de Jager for example was in Berlin on Friday to discuss the problem with his German and Finnish counterparts. European affairs minister Ben Knapen will be talking in Athens to the Greeks.

Mr Rutte has talked to European Council President Herman van Rompuy and will soon be visiting Italy’s new Prime Minister Mario Monti. ‘And this will doubtless be a major topic at my meeting with US President Obama,’ said the Prime Minister.
Confidence in the eurozone

The European Commission presented several proposals last week that should contribute to bolstering the financial markets’ confidence in the eurozone and foster calm and financial stability.

Prime Minister Rutte said that the Commission’s proposals are in line with the ideas that the Netherlands presented in September, such as sharper monitoring of budgets and appointment of a European Commissioner charged with this task.

Mr Rutte said he would be glad to see measures that went a step further: ‘We would like to see enforceable sanctions against countries that systematically flout the rules and let countries that do have their financial house in order foot the bill.’

When the euro became official tender 12 years ago, it was hailed as an economic and social savior, “the beginning of a strong European Union,” according to the EU’s top official at the time.

But now, in the middle of several economic crises, its effectiveness is coming into question.

As long as the uncertainty surrounding the euro continues, more than half of the Dutch population have no other choice then to cut back on their spending. Especially on groceries, clothing, restaurants and even vacations. They rather not cut back on healthy food and the children.

The number of unemployed men in the age category 25-45 has more than doubled over the past three years: from 46 thousand in the second quarter of 2008 to 99 thousand in the second quarter of 2011. With respect to their position on the job market, 25 to 45-year-old men suffered most by the economic crisis.

The number of unemployed 25 to 45-year-old men is considerably higher than before the recession. Unemployment has also increased among over-45s of both genders, but the increase is more modest. Initially, the recession also caused unemployment to rise among young people and 25 to 45-year-old women, but in the second quarter of 2011 unemployment in these two categories returned to the pre-crisis level.

More jobs in care sector, fewer jobs in manufacturing industry and construction
The increase in male unemployment in the 25-45 age category is partly sector-related. In the sectors manufacturing industry, construction, agriculture and commercial services approximately 200 thousand jobs were lost since the second quarter of 2008. At the same time, employment improved in the sector health care and welfare, a sector, which traditionally employs many women.

The labour participation rate of men aged between 25 and 45 has dropped from 93 percent in the second quarter of 2008 to 88 percent three years later as a result of the economic crisis.
The number of employed will not necessarily decline, if unemployment grows. In the age category 45-65, unemployment as well as the share of employed has increased over the past three years. This is caused by the fact that more older people have become available for the job market. The share of working 45 to 65-year-old women in particular was higher in the second quarter of 2011 than three years ago.

Source: cbs

At the request of regional authorities, twelve Dutch photographers, including both established names and new talent, have captured on camera the problems and opportunities arising from the current crisis. Countless symptoms such as the strong desire for a national identity, hidden and visible poverty, and bankruptcy have been recorded in over a hundred and fifty documentary photographs.

The exhibition presents a surprisingly varied impression of the consequences of this crisis on a human scale, from people’s altered living and working circumstances to portraits of actively involved citizens and officials.

Crisis! illustrates, from a range of perspectives, how various groups of people are experiencing the crisis in the Netherlands, which problems are involved and what solutions have been proposed to deal with them.

For more info go to:
Crisis! In Front of the Camera
When: 2 July to 2 October 2011
Where: Rotterdam Kunsthal

The average income jumped 16 percent to 3.1 million Euros last year. According to a study published Friday by the Volkskrant about the salaries of CEOs at 21 of the 25 companies listed on the AEX.

The top executives compensated their income loss over the past two years with the salary increase. In 2008 and 2009, the total remuneration to the directors decreased about 20 percent.

The large fluctuations are due to salary and bonuses and stock option profits. Bonuses in the business bounced back in 2010 after two lean years. The CEOs saw their average annual bonus increase with 40 percent to 935,000 Euros.

The annual salary of Dutch executives remained at an average of 890,000 Euros.

The economy grew by 3.6 percent in Germany and in the Netherlands with 1.7 percent.

The Dutch economy benefits from increased exports and growth in Germany.

The German Minister of Economic Affairs Rainer Brüderle predicted a “XXL-growth”, already last year. And in January he could report that Germany is striding forward.

Germany is recovering faster than many other European countries from the crisis. The traditional motors of the economy, industry and exports, are doing well again. And finally domestic consumption increased as well: Germans not only earn money, they spend also.

The German economy is heavily dependent on exports. This is an advantage when it other parts of the world are doing well, like now in China, India and Brazil. These countries buy plenty of cars, machinery and chemicals.

In 2010, German exports grew by 18.5 percent. Last year household spending grew by an average by 1.2 percent.

Germans expect to spend even more in 2011. That’s a big difference with countries such as France, Britain and Spain, where public expectations are negative.

Contact has been made with Belgium, Germany, Great Britain and Norway at the NATO summit in Lisbon, reported the Dutch defense minister, Hans Hillen (CDA), Saturday afternoon at the top.

Not only the Netherlands is forced to cut the defense budget.

Experts from the Netherlands and other countries will seek areas of cooperation over the next few weeks, for example on further development of the JSF (the successor to the F-16 fighter jet) or on military exercises.

The economic crisis comes as a “blessing in disguise,” said the minister. “With less money, we do more together.” He hopes to present the first proposals at the end of February.

Photo By isafmedia

Wilders reacts with this on the Greek debt crisis. “Greece is wrong. It concerns us that it will cost us a lot of money and the question is whether we will see it back again. “He said that Spain and Portugal are likely to follow.

Negotiators from the European Commission, IMF and Greece currently put the finishing touches on a rescue package. This is expected to include over 100 billion Euros in loans to ailing Greece. The Netherlands will possibly borrow 1.8 billion Euros to Greece.

Wilders: “We can not force the Greeks out of the eurozone, but we as the Netherlands can move out ourselves. The Dutch government should consider that option and take a serious look at the case when it goes wrong with Greece, Spain and Portugal. ”

Rita Verdonk of Dutch party “Proud of the Netherlands” also believes that we should consider reintroducing the Dutch guilder. The party is against European aid for Greece and would rather see a solution with the IMF.

She said: “maybe we should do something together with Germany. Because they are also firmly against depositing money into a bottomless pit.”

Greece is poised to announce an agreement with euro-region allies and the International Monetary Fund on a 120 billion-euro ($159 billion) bailout as protests mount against budget cuts that are a condition for the rescue of the debt-stricken nation.

With national debt of almost 300 billion euros and its credit rating cut to junk status, Greece faces a fiscal mess that has begun to spread to Spain and Portugal, forcing the European Union to orchestrate the rescue. At stake is the future of the euro 11 years after its creators gave the European Central Bank responsibility for interest rates while leaving fiscal policy in national capitals.

The Greek debt crisis has proved to be the biggest challenge facing the eurozone to date. Some analysts warn that if eurozone members do not act quickly and decisively, the decade-old monetary union could be dismantled.

Trigger for the crisis is the failure of the negotiations on the bilingual constituency Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde. Open VLD wanted to stick to the agreed deadline. Which runs untill 14.00 hours this afternoon.

Photo by historic.brussels